The Numbers Behind the Storm

Taiwan is under political tension and society is deeply torn. The 2025 wave of recalls in the Legislative Yuan (立法院) is no longer about accountability, it’s a power game. Out of 113 lawmakers, 54 face recall efforts. A stunning 37 of them are from the Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s largest opposition party. These lawmakers are accused of slashing over NT$207.6 billion (US$6.32 billion) from the national budget, including key defense funds. They blocked energy subsidies and welfare measures, fueling public anger. At least 31 KMT legislators have cleared the signature threshold and will face votes on July 26. Meanwhile, 15 Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators face weaker recall efforts. What began as citizen action now looks more like revenge. The game of polarization has reached the level of mass recalls. Is this what voters really want, or is it just partisan heat before the next mayoral race?

Party	Seats (2024)	Lawmakers Facing Recall	Recall Votes Set
KMT (Kuomintang)	52	37	31 confirmed for July 26
DPP (Democratic Progressive Party)	51	15	2 met threshold
TPP (Taiwan People’s Party)	8	2	0 qualified

Table 1: Legislative Yuan Seat Breakdown, Recall Movement Overview

A Third Party? More Division, Not More Diversity

Some young voters hoped the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) could be a breath of fresh air. Its supporters called themselves “小草” or “little grass,” trying to grow something new through the cracks of the two-party system. But that dream faded fast. After the 2024 election, the TPP became the swing vote in a divided legislature. The TPP under Ko Wen-je has been torn by corruption scandals, leadership power struggles, and unclear direction. Ko himself stepped down amid corruption charges. Inside the party, war broke out between factions over who should lead. Core values changed. The party drifted closer to China on trade and political language. Hopes for diversity became just another partisan fire. The little grass may not survive for another five years.

The Roots of Division: China, the U.S., and Taiwan’s Political Identity

Taiwan’s major parties are more than rivals. They are built on two visions of Taiwan’s future. The DPP stands for a Taiwan-centered identity, close to the United States, and clear on one thing: Taiwan is a country. The KMT looks back to history, favors stronger ties with China, and sees Taiwan as part of a broader Chinese heritage. These aren’t just policies. They shape how parties talk, govern, and build coalitions. Smaller groups like the TPP or the Taiwan State building Party often align with one of the two major blocs. These divisions are not new. They stretch back to Taiwan’s postwar history and show how each vote in parliament is shaped by questions bigger than policy. It is about who Taiwan is, and who it wants to become.

Category	Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)	Kuomintang (KMT)
Political Identity	Taiwan as a sovereign nation	Chinese cultural/ethnic identity
Foreign Policy	Pro-U.S., critical of PRC	Friendly to China, cross-strait engagement
Coalition Allies	Taiwan Statebuilding Party, independents	Faith & Hope League, Blue camp
Views on PRC	Distrust, defense-first	Cautious engagement, peace through talks

Table 2: DPP vs. KMT: Political Identity and Foreign Policy

The Polarization Game: Strategic Recalls and Game Theory

This is not the first time recalls have been used as a weapon. Over the past five years, recalls have become common tools for payback. The biggest shock was in 2020, when Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) was removed. He had just lost the presidency and faced public anger over ignoring local issues.

Year	Politician	Party	Position	Outcome	Notes
2020	Han Kuo-yu	KMT	Kaohsiung Mayor	Recalled	First mayor to be removed
2021	Freddy Lim	Independent (ex-NPP)	Legislator	Recalled	Sparked debate on political targeting
2021	Chen Po-wei	TSP	Legislator	Recalled	Seen as KMT retaliation
2025	KMT bloc (31 members)	KMT	Legislators	Vote scheduled	Largest coordinated recall wave

Table 3: Key Historical Recalls (2018–2025)

These moves set the stage for the current wave. These are not isolated cases. They show a pattern of tit-for-tat. If one side recalls, the other strikes back. The logic is simple: if one party starts a recall, the other hits back. Political science calls this a tit-for-tat game. Since 2016, Taiwan’s recall laws have made it easier to remove lawmakers than to elect them. Just 1 percent of district voters are needed to start a recall, and 10 percent to get it on the ballot. If 25 percent of voters show up and a majority votes yes, the lawmaker is out. This has created a dangerous game where parties attack each other not with policy, but with recalls. Recalls used to mean accountability. Now they mean revenge.

Scenario	Party A action	Party B response	Result
One side strikes first	Starts recall over vote issue	Other side counters with recall	Cycle of revenge
Both escalate	Multiple recalls launched	Voters pulled into party war	Chaos and fatigue
One side steps back	No recalls started	Calm but fragile trust	Inaction
Both cooperate	No recalls at all	Focus on governing	Institutional healing

Table 4: Game Theory of Recall Escalation

Ukraine’s Warning: Division Invites Danger

Before the 2022 invasion, Ukraine was already under stress. Political elites fought each other. Pro-Russian and pro-European camps clashed. Trust in government collapsed. That chaos gave Russia a chance to step in. Moscow used media, fake news, and internal division to weaken Ukraine from within.

Taiwan’s risk is not identical, but the signals are flashing. Taiwan’s recalls could weaken defense planning and delay emergency response. China is watching. Every legislative fight and budget cut is a gift to Beijing.

Enough Is Enough: Stop This Chaos If You Don’t Want to Go to War

What do we gain from this flood of recalls? Parties get temporary wins. Politicians score points. But real change is blocked. The clock is ticking. This legislative term has less than three years left. How much can be done if lawmakers spend all their time fighting for survival? The public is tired. Even recall supporters are starting to question the point. If Taiwan wants to stand strong, it needs unity. Not party wars. Not emotional revenge. Enough is enough. This is not about liking one party more. It is about saving Taiwan from tearing itself apart before something worse comes.

References

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Institute for the Study of War(2025). China–Taiwan Weekly Update: June 23, 2025.

Reuters. (2025). Taiwan to hold recall election for lawmakers that could reshape parliament.

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American Enterprise Institute.(2025). China–Taiwan Weekly Update: June 23, 2025.